I urge you to read this entire email. It provides needed information on what will be happening in connection with school sports for the coming year as well as some information on the risks involved.
Much has transpired since the season ended back in March. Travel around the world was curtailed. Many states (but not all) in this country issued shelter-in-place orders that were supposed to be of limited duration. In SC the duration was two weeks.
The idea was to “flatten the curve.” This would allow for spreading out over time the need for hospital beds due to the Wuhan virus. At that time (last March) there was limited knowledge about successful treatment protocols.
Please note that “flattening the curve” did not mean fewer people would get sick from the virus. It meant that the number of cases would be spread out over a longer period of time. All media outlets acknowledged this at that time.
Fast forward to today. We did “flatten the curve.” In fact, we were so successful that doctors and nurses were laid off in many areas across the country due to a lack of patients. Treatment protocols have been developed. The most successful one around the world has been hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), Z-Paks and a zinc supplement. Why Dr. Fauci and others in other premier healthcare agencies resisted this protocol is a subject for discussion at another time.
Shelter-in-place orders remain in some states. The reasons for that are not worthy of a discussion here. In South Carolina some mitigation measures are still in place with a declining level of enforcement.
At the Rock Hill Sports and Events Center basketball tournaments have been a feature every weekend since the beginning of July. More than a hundred teams have participated in each tournament. In at least one case, more than 200 teams were present. Typically 600-1000 people are in the center at any moment in time during these tournaments. Masks have been required for non-participants due a city ordinance. The tournaments have gone off without a hitch. They are a boon to the local economy.
During the summer, community basketball resumed at the Sports Center and the Charlotte Ave Y. Those successful seasons recently ended.
What is the risk level from the virus? As with any virus, there will always be some people who are at greater risk than others. As I am sure most of you know, our government collects volumes of data about anything and everything. This virus is no exception.
The CDC is the reservoir for data on the virus. According to the CDC, individuals from birth to 18 years of age have about 1/3 the risk of serious complications as individuals would from the seasonal flu. Essentially that means that the risk is nearly zero within this age cohort.
From 18 to 55 the risk of a serious illness is essentially equal to the flu. As I will show below, that risk is quite low. When one gets above age 70, the risk rises. This is because of what are known as co-morbidities. That is, older individuals have a greater incidence of other illnesses. Some of these can compromise their immune systems.
Some examples of co-morbidities include hypertension, diabetes, cancer, sepsis, etc. A healthy immune system is the best defense against the virus. Unfortunately, people residing in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities often have compromised immune systems. This is why the virus has been so devastating in such places. It also begs the question why certain governors north of here forced patients with active infection into such facilities.
From CDC data the number of patients who died from the virus only (no co-morbidities) is 6%. That is less than 10,000 people across the country at this moment in time. This is out of over 6 million cases across America.
For the 94% who died with co-morbidities, the average number of such co-morbidities is 2.6. That means that most people who succumbed with the virus in their system had multiple contributing factors. Again these numbers track with deaths from the flu.
Currently in South Carolina (DHEC data) the number of patients in hospitals with the virus occupy 7.7% of the total number of hospital beds. This is a slowly declining percentage. A month ago it was 14%. The total number of occupied beds for all reasons in SC is 79% which is normal.
Now I am sure that much of what I have shared with you above is quite different for some of you from your perception of the risk posed by the virus. Please understand that I am not saying there is no risk. I am not saying that a healthy person cannot have a serious case of the illness. A member of my family had a serious case. He was ill for almost 5 weeks. He did recover. I am just pointing out what the real data is saying.
Franklin-Templeton, an investment firm, has done an investigational study into actual vs perceived risks from the virus. You can view the entire report here.
According to the study, they found a gross misperception of COVID-19 risk.
- The first round of our Franklin Templeton–Gallup Economics of Recovery Study has already yielded three powerful and surprising insights:
- Americans still misperceive the risks of death from COVID-19 for different age cohorts—to a shocking extent;
- The misperception is greater for those who identify as Democrats, and for those who rely more on social media for information; partisanship and misinformation, to misquote Thomas Dolby, are blinding us from science; and
We find a sizable “safety premium” that could become a significant driver of inflation as the recovery gets underway.
The chart below demonstrates the misperception.
FEAR OF HEALTH CONSEQUENCES FROM COVID-19 VS. ACTUAL MORTALITY DATA, BY AGE BRACKET
Most of the above misperception of risk has been shaped by the incessant fear-mongering by the media. As the study notes,
“Fear and anger are the most reliable drivers of engagement; scary tales of young victims of the pandemic, intimating that we are all at risk of dying, quickly go viral; so do stories that blame everything on your political adversaries.”
There are more reasons for such fear-mongering that are not appropriate to this discussion. I would be happy to have a dialogue with anyone who wishes to discuss this issue further.
Again, let me repeat, I am not saying there is no risk. I am only saying that the data from the CDC show that the risk is similar to the risk posed by the seasonal flu.
Where is the South Carolina High School League on all of this? Currently the Fall season here in SC has been shortened. Football has been reduced to a total of seven games from the usual maximum of 10 during the regular season. The current plan for the Winter and Spring seasons is for a normal season. Please note that this is the current plan.
We will begin our normal meeting schedule soon. The schedule will be posted on our web site. As we did last season, we will be meeting at the Sports Center.
Please direct whatever questions you have to me or any member of the Executive Board.